(BFM Bourse) – The CAC 40, barometer of the Paris Bourse, will have ended Thursday’s session up 0.71% to 6,553 points, close to the opening level, but after having experienced the roller coaster during the session, the amplitude of which between the low points and the high points still approaches 100 points. In the end, the flagship Parisian index will have oscillated between 6,500 and 6,500 points before returning to its initial state. In general, risk appetite is slowing down somewhat, also because of fears related to the spread of the new so-called Delta variant of SARS-Cov2. “There will be a new wave of contamination in Europe unless we remain disciplined,” the European branch of the World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Thursday.

In terms of statistics, inflation in the Eurozone, in very first estimates for the month of June, stood at 1.9% year-on-year, close to the ECB’s target. For the time being, operators are dealing with the final data of the manufacturing PMI in the Euro Zone (by IHS Markit), raised to 63.4. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, notes that “input shortages resulting from capacity constraints and transport problems caused by the surge in demand have led to unprecedented inflationary pressures, as suppliers have indeed took advantage of a seller-friendly market to raise prices for many products. Manufacturers are clearly willing to accept higher costs in order to secure their commodity purchases. “

Growth in manufacturing activity in the United States slowed in June to its lowest level since January, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) monthly survey shows Thursday. Weekly registrations for unemployment benefits stood at 364,000 new units last week, falling sharply compared to the previous week and doing better than target. Employment will be the priority issue this Friday with the NFP report (No Farm Payrolls), which will provide additional material for the FED’s strategic thinking.

On the securities side, the files abandoned for a few days are on the rebound, like Renault (+ 4.47% to 35.61 euros), Société Générale (+ 3.4%), URW (+ 2.5%) or TotalEnergies (+ 1.6%), which is benefiting from the acceleration in crude oil prices – just like CGG (+ 4.8%), Schlumberger (+ 4.3%), TechnipFMC (+ 4.4%) or Vallourec (+ 8.2%). In the other direction, EssilorLuxottica suffered a deterioration of advice (-1.7%) and Hermès lost 0.7%.

Box full on the other side of the Atlantic, with equity indices in the green (+ 0.38% to 34,633 points for the Dow Jones and + 0.13% to 14,522 points for the Nasdaq Composite). The S&P 500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.52% to 4,319 points.

An update on other risky asset classes: around 8 a.m. this morning on the foreign exchange market, the single currency was trading at a level close to $ 1.1840. One barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of risk appetite in financial markets, was trading around $ 75.20.

On the statistical agenda this Friday, to follow as a priority the NFP report on private employment in the United States at 2:30 p.m. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.6% of the working population. Also follow the producer price index in the Euro Zone at 11:00 a.m. and the American trade balance (monthly balance) at 4:00 p.m.

KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS

In eight sessions, the flagship index of the Paris Stock Exchange, the CAC 40, will have closed four times on the low points of the session, proof as we mentioned above, of renewed nervousness. The mobilization of the selling camp, although for the moment occasional, was repeated on June 18, June 23, and June 28, with increasingly pressing tests of the 25-day moving average. The easy creation of new high points from May 19 to June 17 (one month without interruption) is followed by an episode of legitimate ebb, not yet amplified by a feeling of fear. The difference between the low points and the high points of the session accentuated the graphic materialization of this nervousness: market psychology is less binary, and the entry into a phase of questioning marked by nervousness is confirmed.

FORECAST

With regard to the key graphic factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

We will take care to note that crossing 6710.00 points would rekindle the purchase tension. While a break of 6445.00 points would revive the selling pressure.

Hourly data graph

CAC 40: A less one-way market psychology (© ProRealTime.com)

Daily data graph

CAC 40: A less one-way market psychology (© ProRealTime.com)

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